Week Ahead: RBI Policy, US Payrolls, the Fed Fallout & the Oil Shock
Weekly Recap Major US data: a hawkish hold sparks a bond-market revolt The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July, but the decision unsettled markets. Three officials—Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’ Lorie Logan—dissented in favor of a rate hike.
Week Ahead: US jobs report & ISM surveys after a triple central-bank week
US equities & Big Tech earnings US stocks ended a volatile week and month higher, rebounding from a sharp mid-week selloff. The Fed’s decision triggered a 1,153-point drop in the Dow on Wednesday, its worst day since April 2025, but strong technology earnings fueled a recovery.
USD/JPY snaps back from a suspected intervention as the Bank of Japan holds. These are the key levels to watch
Key takeaways The yen posted its biggest one-day gain against the dollar since 2022 on Thursday, recovering as much as 3% from a fresh 40-year low before handing back most of that ground. Japan has not confirmed intervention.
BoE Interest Rate Decision: BoE leaves interest rates on hold, as expected
The BoE voted to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. The vote split was 6-3, more hawkish than the 7-2 split expected, with 3 voting to hike rates by 25 bps.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Cooler Inflation and Fed Hold Lift ETH. Is There Upside to Come?
Ethereum, together with Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, is rising as investors digest the latest FOMC rate decision, alongside weaker-than-expected U.S. growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE index, rose 0.1% month-on-month in June, down from 0.3% in May and below the 0.2% forecast. On an annual basis, Core PCE slowed to 3.3% from 3.4%. The data comes after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday at 3.5% to 3.75% but the vote split was more hawkish than expected.
Gold is compressing into a tighter range after a divided Fed. These are the key levels to watch
Key takeaways The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9 to 3 vote, with all three dissenters pushing for a hike rather than a cut, and the press conference offered no forward guidance in either direction. Long-term real yields have pushed to their highest at auction in almost 18 years while inflation expectations have stayed anchored, historically one of the more reliable headwinds for an asset that pays no yield.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Could the FOMC meeting cap BTC gains?
Bitcoin is rising, extending its rebound above 64k as investors look cautiously towards the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later today and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities lift oil prices by 5%, reviving inflation concerns. Bitcoin is up 1.5% over the past 24 hours, recovering from yesterday's low of 62.7K to trade around 64.3K at the time of writing. Major altcoins are also moving higher, with Ethereum up 2% over the same period, while the total crypto market capitalisation has risen 1.3% to $2.2 trillion. However, sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT, which will be followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 GMT. The baseline expectation is for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
Nikkei loses major support ahead of the Fed, the Bank of Japan and three chip earnings. These are the key levels to watch
Key takeaways The Nikkei has broken below the support region around 65,000 that it was defending last week and is now testing and bouncing on the 62,000 area, which lines up with the 50% retracement The daily 20 and 50 EMA are close to crossing for the first time since the end of March, although on the higher timeframes the primary trend still appears to be intact A rejection here could open a move toward the 60,000 to 58,000 zone, while a reclaim of the level around 62,700 could potentially take price back toward 66,400 to 67,200 Three Japanese chip earnings reports, the Federal Reserve decision and the Bank of Japan meeting all land between today and Friday The chip selloff has reached Tokyo The Nikkei fell roughly 4% on Tuesday to a two-month low, and after making a fresh low on Wednesday it has recovered part of that move as this is written. The selling has been concentrated rather than broad.
EUR/USD is testing its lows going into the Fed decision. Can it hold?
Key takeaways The Federal Reserve announces on Wednesday with the market split, roughly 62% priced for a hold and 38% for a hike, and nothing priced for a larger move. Dollar volatility has compressed toward levels last seen in late 2021, a condition that has historically come before large moves without saying anything about direction.
The Nasdaq broke its range lows on Friday while the S&P 500 held. These are the key levels to watch
Key takeaways The Nasdaq broke below its range lows on Friday but has traded back inside the range today, while the S&P 500 held its range throughout. Earnings are strong across the broader index, with 86% of companies beating estimates against a five-year average of 78%, which suggests the pressure is concentrated rather than broad.
Bitcoin Coils Below $65K as the Fed Meets and Ethereum Tests a Bottom
Technical picture Bitcoin closed at $64,720.9, up $407.3 or 0.6% on the day, after opening at $64,313.6 and trading between $64,232.0 and $64,884.5. Price is consolidating directly on the 50-day EMA, the green line running near $64,915, while a slower average continues to slide down from the $70,447.3 area. An unfilled daily fair value gap sits above, spanning roughly $68,000 to $70,447.3, and each session holding this shelf raises the odds of price reaching into it.
Week Ahead: FOMC, US Q2 GDP & Core PCE, Bank of Japan, Middle East war & oil surge
Weekly recap US Stock market drop US stocks declined for a second consecutive week, pressured by weak Big Tech earnings and rising oil prices. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,411.98, the Nasdaq dropped 1.54%, and the Dow Jones slipped 0.4% to 51,947.25.